Gələcəyi öncədən təxmin etmək nə dərəcədə mümkündür?

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Ehtimal, təsadüf, tale, seçimlər toplusu və ya hər nədirsə, həyatımız, getdiyimiz yol onunla müəyyən olunur. Plan filanla olmur. Nə isə, kimsə dəyişir, yenə o yolda baş verəcək olanları, tam fərqli bir şeylə qarşılaşırsan – gözləntilərin altında və ya üstündə olan bir hadisəylə… Gözlədiyin hadisənin tam olaraq eynisi ilə yox. Hər xırda seçimdə kəpənək effektiylə dəyişən həyatımız bu seçimlərin yol xəritəsindən ibarət bir hekayəyə çevrilir. Bir saniyəylə, bir addımla, bir təbəssümlə, bir sualla, bir seçimlə dəyişərək inşa edilən yollar vardır. Bəs digər yollarda nə baş verir? Onlar heç yaşanmadan, oralarda nə baş verdiyi bilinmədən silinir xəritəmizdən. “Mr. Nobody” filmindəki kimi seçimlərin yaratdığı nəticələrin hər birini yaşama və ya bilmə şansımız yoxdu təəssüf ki. Bizə sadəcə bir yolla kifayətlənmək şansı verilib. Sadəcə hündür hasarlarla çevrələnmiş bir yolda sıxışıb qalmışıq. Biz o nəticələri dəqiq təxmin edəcək qədər inkişaf etmiş bir sivilizasiyaya aid olmadığımız üçündür bəlkə də. Pier Simon Laplas 1814-cü ildə yayımladığı məqaləsində bunu təxmin edən bir varlıq olduğunu bildirmişdir :

“Kosmosun indiki halını keçmişin nəticəsi və gələcəyin səbəbi olaraq götürə bilərik. Bir anlıq kosmosun bütün güclərinin və bunu təşkil edən bütün varlıqların mövqelərini anlaya bilən bir canlı olduğunu düşünsək və onun bu məlumatları araşdıra biləcəyini də düşünsək, eyni anda kosmosdakı ən böyük varlıqlardan ən kiçik atomlara qədər hər şeyi ehtiva edərək hesablayırsa, heç bir şey qeyri-müəyyən deyil və gələcək də eynən keçmiş kimi onun gözlərinin önündədir.” Bu ifadədən anladığımız qədərilə, gələcəklə əlaqədar fərziyyələrin təxmin edilməsinin bir insan üçün nə qədər çətin olduğunu anlamaq mümkündür. Çünki biz bütün dünyada baş verə biləcək o qədər ehtimalı bilə, nəzərə ala və hesablaya bilmərik. Bu hələ insan üçün çox uzaq olan bacarıqlardan biridir. İnsan bu hadisələrə sadəcə təxmin yürütmək qabiliyyətinə malikdir. Çünki bizə nəticəni hesablamaq üçün verilmiş verilmiş başlanğıc verilənləri məhduddur. Ehtimal, təsadüf təxmin edilə bilən olduğu düşünülmədiyi üçün öncələr bir elm sayılmasa da, sonralar baş verən təsadüflər arasında qanunauyğunluqlar olduğu görülmüş və elm kimi öyrənilməyə başlanılmışdır. Bəs biz bu elmlə gələcəyə dair fikirlər yürüdə bilərikmi? Hansısa hesablamalar baş verə biləcək olanları nə qədər izah edə bilir? Bizə verilmiş başlanğıc Xo   nöqtəsiylə Xn-ə ən yaxın cavabı ala bilərikmi?… Bu ehtimalın baş vermə mümkünlüyündən, ətrafda baş verən hadisələrdən, təcrübələrimizdən və digər bir çox ən kiçik amillərdən belə asılıdır.

Ziqmund Freyd ön təxminlərlə bağlı “Bir illüziyanın gələcəyi” kitabında belə yazmışdır :
…kiminsə keçmişlə və bu günlə bağlı bilikləri nə qədər azdırsa, onun gələcəklə bağlı mühakimələri də o qədər güvənsiz olur. İkincisi isə, belə mühakimələrdə hər bir şəxsin subyektiv istəkləri də böyük rol oynayır və onları yetərincə ayırd edib dəyərləndirmək çox çətindir…” Kitabdan verilmiş bu hissədən də aydın olur ki, bizə verilmiş təcrübələr müəyyən qədər nəticələri təxmin oluna bilən edir. Ancaq subyektiv istəklərimiz bu nəticələri dəyişmək qabiliyyətinə malikdir. “Yaşadığımız bu gün keçmişə çevrilməyincə, biz gələcəklə bağlı mühakimələrimizdə ondan yararlanmağı bacarmırıq” (Ziqmund Freyd-Bir illüziyanın gələcəyi) Bəlkə də, eyni hadisə hər bir insan üçün müxtəlif nəticə verdiyi üçün mühakimələrimiz də müxtəlif olur. Əlimizdə real olan – indiki zaman varkən bəlkə də, gələcək təxminləri və keçmiş peşmançılıqları düşünərək vaxt itirməməliyik. Çünki gerçək olan nə keçmiş, nə də gələcəkdir, sadəcə indiki andır. Düzdür, hər kəs üçün həyatının problemsiz qurulması önəmlidir və buna görə də mümkün qədər əvvəldən təxmin yürütməyə çalışırlar. Ancaq bəzən yolun enişli-yoxuşlu olması da ona maraq qatır. Mövzusunu bilmədiyimiz bir filmə baxmaq kimi məsələn.

Image result for roads karikatur

 

Bununla bağlı məqalələr :

http://www.informationphilosopher.com/freedom/laplaces_demon.html

http://www.stsci.edu/~lbradley/seminar/laplace.html

 

Redaktə etdi: Şəfiqə Babayeva

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